高端藝術市場的矛盾與突破
Contradictions and Breakthroughs in the High-End Art Market
藝術市場2022年度回顧
全球市場下跌，拍賣創新高，中國市場受防疫政策影響
Review of the Art Market in 2022
Global market downturn, record-breaking auctions, and impact on the Chinese market due to COVID-19 prevention policies.
根據UBS的藝術市場調查指出，2022年的數據顯示整體藝術市場出現下跌的趨勢。許多報告都提到了這一點，但對於下跌幅度並沒有統一的說詞。總體而言，市場下跌的情況並不嚴重，大多數報告指出下跌幅度在1-4%之間。
According to UBS's art market survey, the data for 2022 indicates a downward trend in the overall art market. Many reports mention this, but there is no consensus on the extent of the decline. Overall, the market decline is not severe, with most reports indicating a decrease between 1-4%.
RM SOTHEBY’S ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF THE MOST VALUABLE CAR IN THE WORLD: THE 1955 MERCEDES-BENZ 300 SLR UHLENHAUT COUPÉ IS SOLD FOR €135,000,000
儘管市場整體收縮，有趣的是幾個國際最大的拍賣會創下了歷史新高的拍賣總額。今年前五大拍賣行的成交額佔據了整個市場的55%。
佳士得的成交額從2021年的71億美元飆升至84億美元，幾乎翻了一番。其中將近41%的成交價值來自三個私人收藏品的拍賣。
蘇富比的總成交額從2021年的73億美元增長到80億美元，但這個數據稍微不準確，因為它包括了RM Sotheby's（蘇富比的經典車拍賣部門）以及蘇富比的房地產拍賣。
值得特別關注的是RM Sotheby’s拍出了史上最昂貴的一輛車，價值13.5億歐元。單論藝術品和奢侈品的成交額為68億美元。
富藝斯在2022年拍出了13億美元的成績，比去年再次增長了8%。這是富藝斯連續第二年創下的新高。
Despite the contraction of the overall market, it is interesting to note that several of the world's largest auction houses achieved record-breaking auction totals. The top five auction houses accounted for 55% of the entire market this year. Christie's saw its sales rise from $7.1 billion in 2021 to $8.4 billion, nearly doubling. Nearly 41% of the sales value came from auctions of three private collections. Sotheby's total sales increased from $7.3 billion in 2021 to $8 billion, although this figure is slightly inaccurate as it includes RM Sotheby's (Sotheby's classic car auction division) and Sotheby's real estate auctions. Of particular note, RM Sotheby's sold the most expensive car ever, valued at €1.35 billion. The combined sales of art and luxury items reached $6.8 billion. Phillips achieved sales of $1.3 billion in 2022, another 8% increase compared to the previous year, marking their second consecutive record-breaking year.
其中，Basquiat的untitled以8,500萬美元的成交價創下了拍賣行單件作品最高價，不容忽視的是邦漢斯今年首次突破10億美元大關，同比去年增長了27%。
然而，這主要歸因於該公司收購了一些地區性拍賣行以及在經典車拍賣中的表現出色。在各大拍賣行再次創下新高的同時，為什麼整體拍賣市場出現了縮小的情況呢？主要原因就是中國市場。
眾所周知，2022年中國因防疫政策的影響，許多重要拍賣被延後或取消。中國最大的拍賣行保利在2022年相比於2021年的成交額直接縮減了近2/3。
而中國嘉德在困難重重的情況下，仍然成為2022年最高成交額的拍賣行，總成交額超過6億美元。儘管如此，與去年相比，他們的成績下跌了高達40%。
Among them, Basquiat's "Untitled" set a record for the highest price of a single artwork at auction, selling for $85 million. Notably, Banksy surpassed the $1 billion mark for the first time this year, with a 27% growth compared to the previous year. However, this is mainly due to the company's acquisitions of regional auction houses and its strong performance in classic car auctions. While major auction houses set new records, why did the overall auction market shrink? The main reason is the Chinese market. As is well known, many significant auctions in China were postponed or canceled in 2022 due to the impact of COVID-19 prevention policies. China's largest auction house, Poly Auction, saw its sales decrease by nearly two-thirds compared to 2021. Despite numerous difficulties, China Guardian became the auction house with the highest sales in 2022, with a total of over $600 million. However, their performance dropped by as much as 40% compared to the previous year.
藝術市場的真相
作品價格分布不平均，超過1億美元作品占據市場一半
The truth about the art market
The distribution of artwork prices is uneven, with works exceeding $100 million occupying half of the market.
從價格來看，整體藝術市場的實際情況並非高不可攀。2022年，價格在500,000美元至1,000萬美元之間的作品共有12,000件成交，僅佔整體成交量的不到2%。價格在20,000美元至50,000美元之間的作品佔5%，在5,000美元至20,000美元之間的作品佔11%，而在1,000美元至5,000美元之間的作品佔整體市場的1/4，而低於800美元的作品則佔近50%。儘管如此，2022年共有6件價值超過1億美元的作品成交，比前一次的紀錄（2017年的3件）多出一倍，這些作品佔整體市場成交量的0.24%，但卻貢獻了近50%的總成交額。
In terms of prices, the overall art market is not unattainable. In 2022, there were a total of 12,000 transactions for works priced between $500,000 and $10 million, accounting for less than 2% of the total transaction volume. Works priced between $20,000 and $50,000 accounted for 5%, those priced between $5,000 and $20,000 accounted for 11%, while works priced between $1,000 and $5,000 constituted a quarter of the overall market, and works priced below $800 made up nearly 50%. However, despite this, there were a total of six works sold for over $100 million in 2022, doubling the previous record of three in 2017. These works accounted for 0.24% of the total market transaction volume but contributed to nearly 50% of the total sales.
今年有這麼多件破億美元的作品主要是由於與重要的私人收藏和作品的稀有性有關。這0.24%的作品通常在市場上極為罕見且具有高品質和優越來源。
超過1億美元的作品在2022年佔總成交額的60%，高於去年的57%，以及2020年的54%。
超過1,000萬美元的作品的市場佔比比去年增長了整整12%，且上拍作品數量減少。
去年，這個價位的作品已經增長了140%，成交件數增加了近兩倍，這表明市場對於藍籌作品的需求。
儘管市場佔比增加，但實際上，在1,000萬美元至1億美元之間的作品，無論在成交量還是成交價方面，都出現了大約10%的萎縮。
The significant number of artworks reaching hundred-million-dollar price tags this year is primarily attributed to their association with prominent private collections and the rarity of the artworks. These 0.24% of artworks are typically exceedingly scarce in the market, possessing high quality and exceptional provenance. In 2022, works priced over $100 million accounted for 60% of the total sales, which is higher than the 57% in the previous year and 54% in 2020. The market share of works priced over $10 million increased by a significant 12% compared to the previous year, despite a decrease in the number of lots offered. Last year, works in this price range already experienced a growth of 140% with a nearly twofold increase in the number of transactions, indicating a strong demand for blue-chip works in the market. However, despite the increase in market share, there was an approximate 10% contraction in both transaction volume and prices for works priced between $10 million and $100 million.
總而言之，2022年價值超過1,000萬美元的作品是唯一一個呈現增長的價位。
In summary, in 2022, works valued over $10 million were the only price range that showed growth.
戰後及現當代藝術市場
成交額下降，藝術家集中度提升
The post-war and contemporary art market
Decreased transaction volume, increased concentration of artists.
2022年，戰後及現代當代藝術的拍賣總額佔藝術品拍賣市場成交額的76%；相較去年下降了5%。在過去的20年裡，戰後及現代當代藝術一直是市場上最強勢的領域。
In 2022, the auction sales of Post-War and Contemporary Art accounted for 76% of the total art auction market, which is a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the past 20 years, Post-War and Contemporary Art has consistently been the dominant sector in the market.
其中，現代藝術在20年前是市場上最大的部分，而戰後及當代藝術在這段期間有顯著的增長。現在，戰後及當代藝術作品的成交額和件數已經超過了整個藝術市場的一半。
Among them, Modern Art was the largest segment in the market 20 years ago, but Post-War and Contemporary Art experienced significant growth during this period. Currently, the sales volume and number of transactions for Post-War and Contemporary Art works have exceeded half of the entire art market.
儘管戰後及當代藝術在過去20年經歷了最大幅度的增長，但它也一直是市場波動最嚴重的類別之一。美國仍然是最大的買家，佔整體市場的48%。
Despite experiencing the largest growth in the past 20 years, Post-War and Contemporary Art has also been one of the most volatile categories in the market. The United States remains the largest buyer, accounting for 48% of the overall market.
最暢銷的戰後及當代藝術家包括Andy Warhol，他的總成交額高達57億美元，與其他前五名的藝術家Francis Bacon、Gerhard Richter、Basquiat和Mark Rothko相比，佔整個市場成交額的27%，相較於2021年增長了4%。在2022年，我們觀察到市場更加集中在藍籌藝術家的作品上，前20名藝術家的作品佔了整體成交金額的56%。
The top-selling Post-War and Contemporary artists include Andy Warhol, whose total sales reached $5.7 billion, accounting for 27% of the total market sales, surpassing the combined sales of the other top five artists Francis Bacon, Gerhard Richter, Basquiat, and Mark Rothko. This represents a 4% increase compared to 2021. In 2022, we observed a greater concentration of market activity on blue-chip artists, with the works of the top 20 artists accounting for 56% of the total sales volume.
在當今藝術家中，最高成交額的是Gerhard Richter，其他前三名分別是David Hockney和草間彌生。
Among today's artists, Gerhard Richter achieved the highest sales, followed by David Hockney and Yayoi Kusama.
“Shot Sage Blue Marilyn,” a 1964 Andy Warhol silkscreen, was auctioned at Christie’s on Monday night.Credit...Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts, Inc./Artists Rights Society (ARS), NY; Jeenah Moon for The New York Times
Property from a Private Collection, Gerhard Richter, b. 1932, Abstraktes Bild , signed Richter, numbered 817-1 and dated 1994 (on the verso), oil on canvas, 51 by 56.1 cm. 20 by 22 in., Executed in 1994.
結語
Conclusion
市場的整體表現在2022年實際上出現了收縮，能夠與2021年接近的總金額大多歸功於幾個私人收藏專拍中的超高價作品。過去從當代藝術專場最能反映市場狀況，當代藝術仍被藏家視為較高風險的資產。主要原因是當代藝術家的數量相對較多，機構的數量較少，作品的重要性還在逐漸累積中。
The overall performance of the market actually contracted in 2022, and the total amount that came close to 2021 was largely attributed to the extremely high-priced works in several private collection auctions. In the past, contemporary art auctions were the best reflection of the market situation, and contemporary art is still considered a higher-risk asset by collectors. The main reason is that there are relatively more contemporary artists, fewer institutions, and the importance of their works is still gradually accumulating.
相同的邏輯也可以應用於超當代藝術家（1974年後出生）在2021年成為最熱門的一個類別，但在2022年市場出現了嚴重下滑。
The same logic can be applied to ultra-contemporary artists (born after 1974), which became the hottest category in 2021 but experienced a significant decline in the market in 2022.
對於2023年，大多數拍行、高資產客戶和畫廊都持樂觀的態度，相信中國市場在今年的開放後將帶來更多的增長。然而，如果目前還沒有高價私人收藏品釋出的情況持續存在，相信接近2022年的成績是相當可能的。
For 2023, most auction houses, high-net-worth clients, and galleries are optimistic, believing that the opening of the Chinese market this year will bring more growth. However, if the current lack of high-priced private collections being released continues, it is quite likely that the results will be similar to those of 2022.
