通膨下的藝術市場表現
The performance of the art market under inflation
四十年一遇的通膨危機
A once-in-forty-years inflation crisis
從去年以來，對於家庭財富的關鍵字-通膨。2020年到目前這段時間，可說是過去歷史上自1970年代以來第一次遇到較劇烈的通膨，包括疫情、中美貿易戰、俄烏戰爭等諸多因素，全球的CPI（消費者物價指數）年增率不斷攀升，美國也加大力度抗擊這四十年以來從未有的高通膨，直至今年（2023）利率已從近乎零一路調升至4.50%-4.75%之間，而「螺旋式的價格上升」不只對美國人來說是場惡夢，更對全球有重大影響，就在本刊截稿日這一週，美國矽谷銀行（SVB）和加密幣放款銀行Signature相繼倒閉，面對接下來的悲觀預期，也讓人重思資金的安全性以及不同屬性資產配置的重要性。
Since last year, the keyword for family wealth has been inflation. From 2020 to the present, it can be said that it is the first time in history since the 1970s that we have encountered significant inflation, including factors such as the pandemic, the US-China trade war, the Russia-Ukraine war, and others. The global Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been continuously rising, and the United States has intensified its efforts to combat the highest inflation in the past forty years. As of this year (2023), interest rates have risen from near zero to between 4.50% and 4.75%. The "spiral price increase" is not only a nightmare for Americans but also has a significant impact globally. Just this week, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the cryptocurrency lending bank Signature Bank collapsed, adding to the pessimistic expectations and making people rethink the security of funds and the importance of diversified asset allocation.
面對通膨貨幣不斷貶值的情況下，許多家庭與個人遇到通膨的第一反應就是思考如何抗通膨，也就是避險。但問題在於，甚麼資產能夠抗跌保值？在市場中許多有能力抗通膨的資產，但各有特殊性和操作方式，我們就從“藝術”這個項目，來和大家分享藝術做為避險資產，在景氣循環中可以扮演的角色。作為眾多資產配置組合中的一種，藝術品表現出和黃金價格有著極強的正相關關聯。這意味著比起作為一個投資工具，藝術品更多扮演著一種保值資產的角色。
Faced with the continuous depreciation of currency due to inflation, many households and individuals are thinking about how to hedge against inflation. But the question is, what assets can withstand the decline and preserve value? There are many assets in the market that have the ability to hedge against inflation, but each has its own characteristics and ways of operation. We will share with you the role that "art" can play as a hedge asset in the business cycle. As one of the many asset allocation portfolios, artworks exhibit a strong positive correlation with gold prices. This means that art plays more of a role as a store of value rather than just an investment tool.
藝術品相較其他投資標的，顯示與黃金有極強的正相關性。
Artworks exhibit a strong positive correlation with gold compared to other investment assets.
資料來源 / Source of information：2021 Artnet Worldwide Corporation
藝術品作為另類投資的特徵
Characteristics of art as an alternative investment
最普遍的另類投資資產，包括珠寶、酒、錶、書籍、手袋......，然而有人常以”小眾”來檢視這類資產流通性不高的問題，然而情況總是一體兩面的，比起股票債卷來說確實屬小眾，因為入門門檻有一定的高度，包括專業知識、資金、儲放空間等，也正因此之故，收藏者知道為何而買，更深知價值及稀缺性，所以已篩濾掉短線炒作的投機客，當景氣走下坡的時候，同屬性的藏家們不致因對市場景氣沒信心而急於拋售手中的藝術品，避免掉像大宗商品價格暴跌的問題。
The most common alternative investment assets include jewelry, wine, watches, books, handbags, and more. However, some people often view these assets as "niche" due to their low liquidity. But the situation is always two-sided. Compared to stocks and bonds, these assets are indeed niche because they require a certain level of expertise, capital, storage space, and more. It is precisely because of this that collectors know why they buy and are more aware of the value and scarcity, filtering out speculative investors who engage in short-term trading. When the economy declines, collectors with similar assets are less likely to sell their artworks due to a lack of confidence in the market, avoiding problems like a sharp drop in commodity prices.
舉例來說股市下滑之際許多人會拋售手中持股，預期市場反轉回溫再買入，但一位優秀藝術家的作品，不會因為市場景氣循環而撼動它的歷史定位，並且每件作品都是獨一無二的存在，賣出後再也買不回同一件；因此被藝術史所認定的藝術家是幾乎不存在市場價格崩盤的風險，但在市場動盪時交易量下滑是無可避免的。優秀的藝術品除了作為保值的避險工具之外，作為收藏能彰顯藏家卓越獨到的品味和見解。在享受收藏之餘，當作品再次轉手交易帶的金錢回報，都是藝術收藏這條路上的豐厚回饋。
For example, during a stock market downturn, many people sell their stocks and anticipate buying back when the market reverses. However, the work of an exceptional artist will not be shaken by the market's economic cycle. Each artwork is a unique existence, and once sold, it cannot be bought back. Therefore, there is almost no risk of a market price collapse for artists recognized by art history. However, it is inevitable that trading volume will decrease during market turbulence. Excellent artworks not only serve as a hedge tool for value preservation but also showcase the collector's outstanding taste and insight. Besides enjoying the collection, the monetary returns gained from reselling the artwork are a rewarding aspect of art collecting.
尚．米榭．巴斯奇亞〈Untitled〉，為2022年藝術拍賣市場價格排行Top9，此件作品曾於2016年紐約佳士得以5千7百萬美元交易，六年後的再次轉手價格即為8千5百萬美元落槌。
"Untitled" by Jean-Michel Basquiat was ranked in the Top 9 of the 2022 art auction market. This artwork was previously sold for $57 million at Sotheby's in New York in 2016, and six years later, it was sold again for a hammer price of $85 million.
國際藝術品抗跌的因素
Factors contributing to the international art market's resilience to market downturns
去年2022是自2008年來景氣最差的一年，股市、房地產都不好，通膨是去年整年的關鍵字，全部的資產類別幾乎都大幅度的下跌，但是藝術品唯獨繼續創新高。
Last year, 2022, was the worst year for the economy since 2008, with both the stock market and real estate performing poorly. Inflation was the keyword throughout the year, and almost all asset categories experienced significant declines. However, art prices continued to reach new highs.
是什麼原因讓藝術市場在這樣的大環境中還是維持甚至上漲的趨勢呢？
What reasons contribute to the trend of the art market maintaining or even rising in such a challenging environment?
藝術品有幾個抗跌的原因：
- 高端藝術品有其文化及歷史價值
- 藝術品較不易受市場波動影響
- 藝術品的稀缺性
- 藝術品會隨著通膨價值膨脹
There are several reasons why artworks are resilient to market declines:
- High-end artworks have cultural and historical value.
- Artworks are less susceptible to market fluctuations.
- Artworks are scarce.
- Artworks can increase in value due to inflation.
如果今天把梵谷的向日葵以1萬美金銷售應該沒人會拒絕，我們都知道梵谷在藝術史的地位及重要性，在某種程度上只要金額是可以接受的就算不考慮他後續能賣多少錢，能夠將一個極具意義的名畫掛在家裡相信是很多人的夢想，這也是藝術品價值最根本的因素。如果我們觀察過去的金融危機都能觀察到藝術品相較其他的資產他回彈速度是快很多的，通常股市及房市要花4-5年，而藝術品大約僅1-2年。藝術品因為自身所存載的歷史及文化意義，讓它較不容易因為一時波動而有大幅度的價格變動。從過去的經驗能看出藝術品與股票的連動性較低，與黃金的連動性較高；年代越久遠的項目：例如古典大師、印象派等作品與黃金的連動性比現當代藝術更高。也就是文化藝術價值越確定的作品越不易受股市與房價的影響。
If today a Van Gogh Sunflowers painting were to be sold for $10,000, no one would refuse. We all know the status and importance of Van Gogh in art history, and to some extent, as long as the amount is acceptable, the potential resale value may not be a consideration. Being able to hang a highly significant masterpiece in one's home is a dream for many people, and this is the fundamental factor that determines the value of artworks. If we observe past financial crises, we can see that artworks tend to rebound much faster compared to other assets. It usually takes 4-5 years for the stock market and real estate to recover, while artworks take only 1-2 years. Artworks, due to their inherent historical and cultural significance, are less susceptible to significant price fluctuations caused by temporary market volatility. Based on past experiences, artworks have shown lower correlation with stocks and higher correlation with gold. Artworks from earlier periods, such as classical masters and Impressionist works, have a higher correlation with gold compared to contemporary art. In other words, the more certain the cultural and artistic value of a work, the less it is affected by the stock market and real estate prices.
藝術品的稀缺性也是一個很重要的因素，受有限的生命影響藝術家一生能創作的數量有限，這些數量還會被“系列”再度分割，在系列中還可以細分：顏色、畫面、構圖、基理等等；簡單來說每一件都是唯一，這個特性經常大幅影響（多為提升）特定作品的拍賣預估價。另外來源有據的作品也會影響交易價格增添稀有性；比較極端的例子是美術館釋出的作品，這些作品的成交價格會高過同類型的作品，原因是大家都想收藏曾經掛在知名美術館中的作品，這也涵蓋名人收藏和重要家族收藏。
The scarcity of artworks is also a crucial factor. The limited lifespan of artists limits the quantity of artworks they can create in their lifetime. These quantities are further divided within "series," which can be subdivided by color, composition, subject matter, and other factors. In simple terms, each artwork is unique, and this characteristic often significantly impacts (usually enhances) the estimated auction price of specific works. Additionally, the provenance of a work can also influence its transaction price and add to its rarity. An extreme example is artworks released by museums, which tend to command higher prices compared to similar works, as people aspire to collect pieces that were once displayed in renowned museums. This also applies to celebrity collections and important family collections.
最後是通膨導致的價格膨脹，藝術品是高資產客戶的投資標的，通膨會加劇貧富差距，而當富人更富的時候自然在競標就不會手軟，在通膨最嚴重的一年，我們看到藝術品價格也大幅膨脹。
Finally, there is price inflation caused by inflation. Artworks are investment targets for high-net-worth clients, and inflation exacerbates wealth disparities. When the rich become wealthier, they are less hesitant to bid, and in the year of severe inflation, we have seen significant price increases in artworks.
在過去幾次金融活動下滑的環境中，藝術品都很快速的回彈至前高，經常甚至再創新高。
During past financial downturns, art pieces have shown a remarkable resilience by swiftly rebounding to previous highs and often even reaching new record levels.
資料來源 / Source of information：artprice.com
案例分享
Case Study Sharing
圖片來源 / Image source：New York Times
作為以上論述的最佳案例就是Paul G. Allen在佳士得的專拍，這場專拍充分表現藝術品在市場不確定性高的環境下如何開創價值。Paul G. Allen專拍是在2022年藝術市場收縮的下半年間發生的，在這半年中我們看到高風險的Ultra Contemporary藝術家在這幾年來第一次總金額下滑，也觀察到市場對藍籌藝術家的作品需求增加，這表示市場在半年中趨近保守。整體市場因為大環境因素：戰爭、通膨、能源危機等等正在收縮。
The best example that supports the above arguments is the dedicated auction of Paul G. Allen's collection at Christie's. This auction perfectly demonstrates how artworks can create value in an environment of market uncertainty. Paul G. Allen's auction took place in the latter half of 2022, during a period of contraction in the art market. During this period, we saw a decline in the total amount for high-risk ultra-contemporary artists for the first time in several years, indicating a market trend towards conservatism. Overall, the market was contracting due to various macroeconomic factors such as wars, inflation, energy crises, and more.
在這時候選擇做私人收藏專拍照理說並不是一個很好的時機，但是由於Paul Allen的這批收藏掌握了前面提出的四個藝術品抗跌要素，他的專拍成就了非常驚人的結果。
Choosing to conduct a private collection auction at such a time may not seem like an ideal opportunity. However, Paul Allen's collection embodied the four essential elements that make artworks resilient to market downturns, resulting in remarkable results.
從歷史文化意義上來看待這批收藏，能看出這場專拍是專注在歐美現當代藝術的私人收藏，其中囊括非常多藍籌藝術家，如梵谷、高更、莫內等。這些都是本就不太受市場影響的高端作品，一部分是藝術家在藝術史上的歷史定位穩定了價格，且此類作品大多被美術館長期館藏，因此市面上流通的作品極為稀有—這都讓高端藝術品的價格穩定且持續上漲。除此之外，Paul Allen作為微軟共同創辦人，也是全球10大富豪，他的收藏精良眼光獨到，且作品大多來源清晰，都為作品添加了價值。
In terms of historical and cultural significance, this auction focused on a private collection of European and American contemporary art, including many blue-chip artists such as Van Gogh, Gauguin, Monet, and more. These are high-end works that are inherently less influenced by the market. Some of them have stable prices due to the historical positioning of the artists in art history, and many of these works have long-term museum holdings, making the circulating works extremely rare. This stability and scarcity contribute to the continuous appreciation of high-end artworks. Furthermore, Paul Allen, as the co-founder of Microsoft and one of the top 10 billionaires globally, had a discerning eye for art and had access to excellent sources, which added value to the artworks.
最後是通膨，在21世紀以前從來沒有任何一件藝術品到達破億美金以上的金額，這是在過去被相信永遠不會突破的紀錄。然而，2000年後至Paul G. Allen專拍前總共有18件作品破了破億美金的門檻；藝術品的價值是主觀的，而當金錢逐漸失去價值，相對應的藝術品的金額就逐漸升高。Paul G. Allen專拍在通膨最嚴重的後半年舉辦，拍出了五件超過破億美金的作品，這是空前絕後的。這五件創下億元之外，很多藝術家的作品也在他的專拍中創下藝術家新高價。可以看出藝術品在高通膨下的快速膨脹，也能表現出藝術品作為避險的價值。在現金快速貶值的大環境下剛好加劇了這次拍賣的結果。
Finally, there is inflation. Prior to the 21st century, no artwork had ever reached a price exceeding 100 million US dollars, a record that was believed to be unbreakable in the past. However, between 2000 and the Paul G. Allen auction, a total of 18 artworks surpassed the 100 million US dollar threshold. The value of artworks is subjective, and as money gradually loses its value, the corresponding prices of artworks gradually increase. The Paul G. Allen auction took place in the latter half of a period of severe inflation, and it witnessed the sale of five artworks that exceeded the 100 million US dollar mark, an unprecedented achievement. In addition to these five record-breaking pieces, many artists' works also achieved new high prices in his auction. This rapid inflation of artworks under high inflation demonstrates the value of artworks as a safe haven. The auction results were further amplified by the rapid devaluation of cash in the overall economic environment.
Paul G. Allen拍賣領銜作品：喬治·秀拉〈Les Poseuses, Ensemble (Petite version)〉成交價1.49億美元。
Leading artwork at the Paul G. Allen auction: Georges Seurat's "Les Poseuses, Ensemble (Petite version)" sold for $149 million.
圖片來源：佳士得 / Image source: Christie's
